STATICTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CONDITIONING FACTORS OF URBAN ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION

Abstract

This research work presents the analysis of the most important factors that condition the urban residential electricity consumption. This study shows the quantitative parameters conditioning the electricity consumption. This sector of analysis has been chosen because there is disaggregated information of which are the main social and technological factors that determine its behavior, growth, with the objective of elaborating policies in the management of the electric consumption. The electrical demand considered as the sum of the powers of all the equipment that are used in each of the instants of a full day, is related to the electrical consumption, which is not but the value of the power demanded by a determined consumer Multiplied by the time in which said demand is maintained. In this report we propose the design of a probabilistic model of prediction of electricity consumption, taking into account mainly influential social and technological factors. The statistical process of this database is done through the Stat Graphics software version 4.1, for its extensive didactic in the accomplishment of calculations and associated methods. Finally, the correlation of the variables was performed to classify the determinants in a specific way and thus to determine the consumption of the dwellings.

Keywords: Electric Consumption, Statistical process, Urban Sector.

References

[1] J. Benavente, A. Galetovic, R. Sanhueza and P. Serra, “Estimando la demanda por electricidad en Chile: el consumo es sensible al precio”, Vol. 42, pp. 31-61, 2005.

[2] D. Marshall, “El consumo eléctrico residencial en Chile en 2008”, Vol. 47,  pp. 57-89, 2010.

[3] V. Puentes, “Demanda eléctrica”, Conferencia Nacional de Demanda Eléctrica, La Habana, 2002.

[4] P. Martínez Serna, “Proyección de La Demanda. Antecedentes. Necesidad e Importancia”, Trabajo de Grado,  Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Manizales, 2003.

[5] B. De Barros Neto, L. Spacino Scarminio and E. Bruns, “Como Fazer Experiments”, II Ed. pp 58, Editora Unican 2002.

[6] G. Fierro and P. Serra, “Un modelo de estimación del costo de falla eléctrica: caso Chile”, Cuaderno de economía, Año 30, No. 90, pp. 247-259, 1993.

[7] IDEA, Secretaría general departamento de planificación y estudio, “Análisis del consumo energético del sector residencial en España", 2011.

[8] C. Agostini, M. Pottier and E. Saavedra, “La demanda residencial por energía eléctrica en Chile”, CASEN, 2009.

[9] I. Martén, R. Baeza, D. López and J. Molleda. “El reto de Kioto: mitos y realidades”, Rev. Universia Business Review, núm. 2, segundo trimestre, pp.118-135 Portal Universia S.A. Madrid, España. 2004.

[10] J. Segura. “Modelo matemático del consumo eléctrico residencial urbano”. Trabajo de grado, Universidad de Cienfuegos, 2012.