Abstract
Earthquakes represent a significant threat to urban areas, where territorial vulnerability increases the risk to the population. The objective of this study was to optimize the location of temporary shelters through a spatial accessibility analysis to strengthen earthquake response. A quantitative, applied, non-experimental study was conducted using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and multicriteria analysis. The model integrated variables related to seismic hazard, topography, geology, soil type, road accessibility, and population distribution to identify optimal shelter locations and evacuation routes. The results showed a predominance of areas with high and very high hazard levels, allowing the proposal of thirteen strategically distributed shelters. It is concluded that the integration of GIS and AHP constitutes an effective tool to support territorial planning and strengthen seismic risk management.
References
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[7] M. Ye, J. Wang, J. Huang, et al., "Methodology and its application for community-scale evacuation planning against earthquake disaster," Natural Hazards, vol. 61, pp. 881–892, 2012. doi: 10.1007/s11069-011-9803-y.
[8] P. Ghasemi, K. Khalili-Damghani, A. Hafezalkotob, and S. Raissi, "Uncertain multi-objective multi-commodity multi-period multi-vehicle location-allocation model for earthquake evacuation planning," Applied Mathematics and Computation, vol. 350, pp. 105–132, 2019. doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2018.12.061.
[9] P. Ghasemi, K. Khalili-Damghani, A. Hafezalkotob, and S. Raissi, "Stochastic optimization model for distribution and evacuation planning: A case study of Tehran earthquake," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, vol. 71, Art. no. 100745, 2020. doi: 10.1016/j.seps.2019.100745.
[10] L. Zhao, H. Li, Y. Sun, R. Huang, Q. Hu, J. Wang, and F. Gao, "Planning emergency shelters for urban disaster resilience: An integrated location-allocation modeling approach," Sustainability, vol. 9, no. 11, Art. no. 2098, 2017. doi: 10.3390/su9112098.
[11] L. He and Z. Xie, "Optimization of urban shelter locations using bi-level multi-objective location-allocation model," International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 19, no. 7, Art. no. 4401, 2022. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19074401.
[12] Y. Shi, G. Zhai, L. Xu, Q. Zhu, and J. Deng, "Planning emergency shelters for urban disasters: A multi-level location-allocation modeling approach," Sustainability, vol. 11, no. 16, Art. no. 4285, 2019. doi: 10.3390/su11164285.
[13] S. Geng, H. Hou, and Z. Zhou, "A hybrid approach of VIKOR and bi-objective decision model for emergency shelter location-allocation to respond to earthquakes," Mathematics, vol. 9, no. 16, Art. no. 1897, 2021. doi: 10.3390/math9161897.
[14] M. D. Eelagh and R. A. Abbaspour, "A location-allocation optimization model for post-earthquake emergency shelters using network-based multi-criteria decision-making," Decision Analytics Journal, vol. 10, Art. no. 100430, 2024. doi: 10.1016/j.dajour.2024.100430.
[15] A. Al-Hemoud, J. Alqahtani, A. Mhawish, et al., "Sand and dust storms, sand encroachment, and drought in Kuwait: A basis for formulating a disaster risk reduction plan," Natural Hazards, vol. 122, Art. no. 81, 2026. doi: 10.1007/s11069-025-07757-4.
[16] Y. Kızılkan and S. Birinci, "Integration of GIS and MCDM for temporary shelter site selection in earthquake-risk zone: A case study with sensitivity analysis," Natural Hazards, vol. 122, no. 11, 2026.
[17] O. Nasanlı and D. T. Kejanlı, "Spatial Analysis of Earthquake Risk in Şanlıurfa City Center," GeoHazards, vol. 7, no. 2, 2026.
[18] Ö. Dilmen, A. Demir, A. E. Dinçer, Ş. Öztürk, and V. Kalpakcı, "A machine-learning-based multi-hazard GIS-AHP framework for wind turbine siting under earthquake-landslide coupling," Environmental Research Communications, vol. 8, no. 5, Art. no. 055047, 2026.
[19] M. F. Altun and N. S. Sağ, "Identifying and Prioritizing Disaster-Oriented Urban Transformation Areas Using GIS-AHP: The Case of Akşehir," ICONARP International Journal of Architecture and Planning, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 105–130, 2026.
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